November 16, 2017
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: WB and DC Comics' Justice League delivered $13 million in Thursday night previews, which compares favorably to the $11 million Wonder Woman brought in prior to a $103.2 million opening back in June. It's a bit behind Thor: Ragnarok's $14.5 million in previews before its recent $122.7 million debut and places well behind the $20.5 million and $27.7 million in previews for Suicide Squad and Batman v Superman respectively.
Lionsgate's Wonder brought in $740,000 from ~2,400 theaters from screenings beginning at 7PM. There are few, if any, meaningful comparisons to be made with this performance. If anything, it's just behind the $850k Thursday previews for Lionsgate's The Shack, which went on to open with $16.1 million.
We are still waiting on results for The Star.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: This weekend Marvel's latest hit Thor: Ragnarok is looking to top $250 million after 17 days in release while Warner Bros. and DC Comics unveil their latest entry into the DC Extended Universe, Justice League looking to make a splash globally, though it's not the only new release the weekend has to offer. Lionsgate will debut the highly anticipated adaptation Wonder while Sony is debuting their faith-based animated title The Star. All-in-all we should be looking at a strong weekend in which the top twelve should combine for over $200 million for the first time since early July.
Looking at a #1 finish, Warner Bros. and DC Comics' Justice League will debut in 4,051 theaters with industry expectations right around $105-115 million. Given Wonder Woman debuted with $103.2 million earlier this year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.6 million last year and Batman v Superman opened with $166 million, those expectations might seem low given this is essentially DC's equivalent to Marvel's The Avengers. While that is true, the DC Extended Universe has taken something of a different path than the Marvel franchise, playing it big almost from the start by bringing Batman and Superman together and introducing Wonder Woman in Batman v Superman immediately after Man of Steel, followed that same year by the anti-hero feature Suicide Squad. As such, while these expectations appear a little low, they aren't entirely unreasonable.
Looking at IMDb page view performance, Justice League is pacing just ahead of Wonder Woman at the same point in the release cycle and well behind both Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad. And if you take the average opening for a film of this type from Warner Bros., debuting in this many theaters, you only get a ~$95 million opening. That said, based on IMDb page view performance Justice League is over-indexing, leading us to believe an opening no lower than $115 million is likely.
Not helping matters, reviews for Justice League are only marginally better than those for Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad, as it currently holds a Metacritic score of 47. There has also been a bit of controversy surrounding the suppression of the film's RottenTomatoes score, but just as previous films didn't perform entirely well with critics, their opening weekends appear critic-proof and that should be the case again here. How it plays beyond opening weekend is another matter.
All told, we're anticipating an opening around $118 million or higher for Justice League. We'll get a good indication as to how the film is performing on Friday morning as it begins its weekend run tonight with Thursday previews beginning at 6 PM in ~3,700 theaters.
Internationally, Justice League kicked off its release yesterday in nine markets including a record $3.7 million opening day in Brazil, over $1.1 million from previews in South Korea and a $1.1 million opening day in France, 19% ahead of Wonder Woman's debut in the market. The film opens in an additional 38 markets today, including Germany, Italy, Russia, Korea and Australia with releases in the majority of markets this Friday.
Looking at a second place finish is Thor: Ragnarok as it should approach, if not top, $250 million by end of day Sunday. The big question is just how much of a chunk out of Thor's weekend will go to Justice League? Ragnarok isn't losing any theaters this weekend and typically we might expect a drop around 43% or so, but given the entrance of Justice League into the picture we're anticipating a drop closer to 54% and a three-day around $26 million.
Le previsioni del film a inizio programmazione sono di 118 milioni di dollari nel primo weekend